Did the Blue Jays cost us a mortgage cut?
Canada’s mortgage market may have been thrown a curveball by the Toronto Blue Jays’ electrifying World Series run, as the team’s near victory sparked a hiring spree that rippled through the hospitality sector—ultimately complicating the case for a mortgage rate cut.
October’s jobs report surprised even seasoned analysts, with 67,000 new positions added and unemployment dipping to 6.9%, according to Statistics Canada.
The real story, however, was the surge in part-time work, especially in Ontario, which accounted for 55,000 of those new jobs.
Restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues scrambled to staff up as fans and visitors flooded downtown Toronto for the Jays’ playoff run.
“We saw a huge bump. We actually over-delivered on what we expected to do in October by 30 per cent,” Emma Barrett, head of marketing at Mill Street Brewery, told CBC. “The Jays fans really showed up, and we’ve been so fortunate.”
The Blue Jays’ post-season run didn’t just fill the stands—it filled hotel rooms and barstools across the city. Destination Toronto reported a 15% jump in hotel demand during the World Series home games, adding over 11,000 room nights compared to last year. The full post-season saw an 11% increase, with more than 20,000 extra room nights booked.
The hospitality hiring spree was unmistakable. Moneris reported restaurant spending near Rogers Centre up 20% during Game 6 and 26% during Game 7.
Alice Lee, general manager of the Rec Room Roundhouse, told The Canadian Press that the playoff week was “a full blown ‘I’m going downtown to experience everything related to what’s happening with the Jays.’”
Kris Barnier, vice-president of central Canada at Restaurants Canada, said, “Everything from food costs to labour costs are all up at about the 11 to 14 per cent rate, but we’re seeing spending going down. So it’s made it a really tough go for the restaurant industry ... and things like a Blue Jays run makes a huge difference.”
How does this tie back to mortgages?
The Bank of Canada closely watches employment numbers as a signal of economic strength. A robust jobs report—especially one driven by a hiring spree in hospitality—suggests the economy is running hotter than expected. That makes it harder for policymakers to justify a mortgage rate cut, even as borrowers and brokers hope for relief.
When more people are working, especially in visible sectors like hospitality, it signals consumer confidence and spending power—two factors that can delay the need for rate cuts.
The Blue Jays’ close call didn’t just bring fans together—it triggered a hiring surge in Toronto’s hospitality sector, which likely helped push job numbers up and made it harder for mortgage rates to come down.
For the mortgage industry, it’s a reminder that sometimes, the biggest market movers are wearing jerseys, not suits.
Meanwhile, the upbeat jobs data, which followed a similarly strong September, has prompted economists to predict the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate unchanged in the near term, even as underlying signals remain mixed.
Source CMP
By Liezel Once
