'Downsizing wave' set to shake up Canadian housing market in years ahead

Canada’s next housing shift is expected to be dramatic: older owners selling en masse, freeing up family homes for younger buyers.

New research from REMAX Canada instead pointed to a slow‑moving “downsizing wave” that is likely to play out over years, not months, as seniors weigh their options and confront bare shelves of suitable housing.

Canada already stands on the cusp of a demographic reset. Statistics Canada data showed about 7.6 million people aged 65 and over in 2023, or 18.9% of the population, a share projected to climb above 21% by early next decade.

Federal projections suggested seniors could approach roughly one quarter of the population by 2030, broadly in line with the “almost 25%” figure cited in the REMAX analysis.

“While downsizing won't happen all at once, the direction is clear,” said Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada.

“Canada's aging population will undoubtedly shift demand and availability of housing over time, but progress will depend on improving access to housing that meets seniors' needs.”

According to the REMAX survey, nearly half of Canadians – 49% – reported low availability of downsizing options in their communities, with a further 8% saying there were none.

Among Canadians 65 and over, 65% reported low or no availability.

Only 10% of respondents overall said they plan to move to a smaller home within 10 years; that share rose to 16% for those 65 and older, while 46% of seniors plan to stay put.

“We're seeing many homeowners who would consider downsizing, but they're struggling to find suitable options in their communities,” Kottick said.

“Without sufficient inventory to support these transitions, many are choosing to stay in their homes longer, which limits movement of younger buyers across the market.

“Downsizing is an important factor in the natural churn of the housing market, and headway will depend on improving access to appropriate housing options for older Canadians,” he said.

“Without it, our research indicates that many homeowners may delay or abandon their moving plans entirely, further constraining the flow of inventory into the market.”

What a slow downsizing wave means for brokers

More than one third of survey respondents, or 34%, believed increased downsizing by older owners would make it easier for younger buyers to enter the market, compared with 26% who said it would make it harder and 29% who expected little impact. 

Federal and industry studies pointed to strong demand and limited new construction in seniors’ housing, even as the over‑65 population swelled.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, meanwhile, estimated millions of additional homes would be required nationally over the next decade to restore pre‑pandemic affordability levels.

Younger buyers and the next decade of demand

REMAX found that 23% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 plan to buy their first home in the next 10 years, even as older owners showed limited appetite to move. That mismatch – rising first‑time demand, frozen move‑up and downsizing segments – echoed past reports on how aging‑in‑place trends and reverse mortgage growth are reshaping lender strategies around Canadians 55 and over.

The findings came from a REMAX Canada survey conducted on March 30 to April 1, 2026, among 1,507 adult Canadians in the Angus Reid Forum.

Source CMP
By Liezel Once